Ultimately, we really have no idea what we're getting with AJ Burnett. Pirates Nation has been waiting for years for a pitcher with this kind of star resume to come to Pittsburgh. Not only is this a pitcher with a superstar resume and a World Series ring, this is a pitcher who is only 34 years old.
In spite of all the positives, there is still a significant portion of the fan base that thinks this is nothing more than "same old Pirates." I could type for a half hour a list of aging veterans who have come to Pittsburgh and failed miserably, but we all know that drill.
What Burnett is going to do in the black and gold is a mystery, almost a coin flip if he is going to be successful or not. Over the next two days, we will look at the reasons why or why not Burnett will be successful. So today lets get to the reasons why Burnett will be successful in Pittsburgh.
1. Leaving the AL East
It is safe to say that over the last two seasons, the AL East has been the best offensive division in baseball. Even without counting the Yankees, the Red Sox manufactured more runs than any team in baseball last season. They lead the majors in team AVG, OBP, and SLG%. The Rays were in the top ten in HR last season and are home to one of the best all around hitters in the game in Evan Longoria. The Blue Jays have Joey Bats mashing home runs and were a top 10 team in HR's and Runs. The Orioles were no slouch either offensively last year being in the top half of baseball in AVG, 2B, HR, and AVG. The effect of leaving the AL East has been shown as according to Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports the last nine established veteran pitchers to leave the AL East have all lowered their ERA the next season by at least one run.
1a. Leaving Yankee Stadium
I didn't want to give this reason its own category as it is related to pitching in the AL East. However, pitching in the bandbox known as Yankee Stadium does nothing to help pitchers ERA's. In 2011, Yankee Stadium was the one of the top 5 most hitter friendly ballparks based on Hits, Runs, and HR's according to ESPN's MLB Park Factor. On top of this factor, pitching in Yankee Stadium obviously means that you are seeing a DH every time you are on the hill as opposed to Pitching in PNC Park.
2. Moving to the NL Central
The NL Central has never been a slugging division. Losing Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols to teams outside the division will take away more offense from this division. There are no teams in this division that will put up team offensive numbers above what the Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays. St. Louis was the only team whose offensive numbers were similar to the big boys of the AL East. That will change this year with the loss of Pujols. Beyond St. Louis, you have Milwaukee who is in a similar situation with Prince Fielder joining the Tigers. The Reds who have Joey Votto but not much team offense. Along with those teams you have the Cubs and Astros who could arguably be the two worst teams in baseball.
3. Ray Searage
There is a reason why Searage stuck around after the 2010 season. The guy flat out knows how to handle this pitching staff. In spite of the second half collapse last season, the pitching staff has bought into Searage's plan in this off season to improve and finish what they started in the first half of 2011. Burnett has gone on the record to say that he does not need his mechanics tinkered with. Burnett pitches his best when he is comfortable which is something that Searage has let his pitchers do last year with little focus on mechanics. This was clearly obvious with the massive turnaround of Charlie Morton last season from how he pitched under Dave Kerwin...I mean Joe Kerrigan. Burnett has worked with Ray Searage during their time together in Toronto. Both seemed excited to be reunited when addressing the media in Bradenton today.
4. Strikeouts and Innings Pitched
With Paul Maholm leaving for the Cubs, the Pirates lost the biggest innings eater in the starting rotation. Burnett will be able to fill the void left by throwing over 185 innings in each of the last four seasons. As Burnett has aged, his ability to throw a significant amount of innings has not. Burnett threw more innings in 2011 than in 2010 with less appearances than the previous year.
Burnett's strikeout ability returned in 2011 to a level similar to that of back in his prime with the Marlins and Blue Jays. Burnett struck out 173 batters in 190 innings in 2011 for an average of 8.24 K's/9 innings pitched. In a rotation that other than James McDonald really lacks strikeout pitchers, adding Burnett will add another arm who can get batters out on his own.
5. Less Pressure
I doesn't even need to be said how unreal the pressure of pitching for the Yankees is. From the time he signed his massive contract with New York, every pitch he threw was observed under a microscope. You have to be a unique type of person to be able to handle that pressure. There is nothing wrong with struggling under the spotlight the way that he did. It doesn't mean that he is mentally weak or can't handle pressure. The guy has a World Series ring and earned it by out dueling Pedro Martinez in the 2009 World Series. Moving out of that bright spotlight to a team that hasn't seen a winning record since George H. W. Bush was President could be the best thing for him. Burnett already has his big contract and his World Series ring, so now he is pitching to prove that he still can do it and be successful.
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